EV Sales to Continue Growing Despite Trade Uncertainty, IEA Predicts
Uncertainty about trade and industrial policy triggered by U.S. tariffs won't derail growth in sales of electric vehicles, which should account for one in four cars sold this year, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said Wednesday.
In its annual report on the outlook for the uptake of electric vehicles—a key element in efforts to reduce climate-changing emissions—the IEA indicated that the increasing affordability and lower operating costs was supporting sales.
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"Our data shows that, despite significant uncertainties, electric cars remain on a strong growth trajectory globally," IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol said in a statement accompanying the report.
"This year, we expect more than one in four cars sold worldwide to be electric, with growth accelerating in many emerging economies. By the end of this decade, it is set to be more than two in five cars as EVs become increasingly affordable."
The IEA put sales of EVs, including plug-in hybrids, at more that 17 million last year, as sales increased by more than 3.5 million vehicles from 2023.
With first quarter EV sales jumping 35 percent globally, the IEA expects more than 20 million should be sold this year.
China continues to drive the transition to electric vehicles, accounting for almost two-thirds of global sales last year and more than 70 percent of worldwide production.
"The growth in China reflects in no small part the growing price competitiveness of battery electric cars with conventional cars in the country," said the IEA. “Two-thirds of all electric cars sold last year were priced lower than their conventional equivalents, even without purchase incentives."
But a considerable purchase price gap remains in many other markets.
The IEA found the average battery electric car price in Germany remained 20 percent higher than that of its conventional counterpart. Battery electric cars in the United States were still 30 percent more expensive.
EV sales in China increased by almost 40 percent year-on-year in 2024, to nearly one in two vehicles overall, said the report.
Sales of EVs stagnated in Europe last year at around one in five, thanks in part to a reduction of government purchase subsidies in France and Germany.
EV sales growth slowed in the United States last year, to 10 percent, with their share in overall sales also rising to just over 10 percent.
Sales in emerging and developing economies in Asia, Latin America and Africa boomed last year, increasing by over 60 percent year-on-year.
"This rapid growth has been strengthened by policy incentives and the growing presence of relatively affordable electric cars from Chinese" automakers, said the IEA.
